America's Napoleonic Folly

AMERICA'S NAPOLEONIC FOLLY What will be the ultimate outcome of America's attempt to bring democracy to the Middle East? This comparative analysis suggests an answer by illustrating the striking parallels between Napoleon III's intervention in Mexico 1862-67 and Iraqi regime change initiated by President Bush in 2003. Both interventions were high risk gambles from the outset as significant differences in political culture divided the occupier from the occupied. Upon the fall of Mexico City and Baghdad short but crucial windows of opportunity were missed to build political support incorporating local key leaders. Instead over ambitious idealism caused both conquests to deteriorate into protracted guerilla wars. External circumstances and French public opinion eventually forced Napoleon III to withdraw from Mexico. Will regime change in Iraq suffer the same fate?