Application of the Wind Gust Estimate and Comparison to the AFWA MM5 Wind Gust Algorithm

<p>The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) runs the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) as their main mesoscale weather forecast model. One of the post-processing procedures is a diagnostic algorithm which is used to help identify convective and non-convective wind gusts. Anecdotal evidence by operational forecasters who use this product identify the AFWA algorithm as habitually over-forecasting wind gusts. O. Brassuer has identified a new Wind Gust Estimate (WGE) a physically based method of computing non-convective wind gusts. The WGE surmises that Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) transfers the momentum of faster upper-air winds to the surface overcoming the buoyant energy of the surface layer. This work focuses on the conversion of Brassuer's WGE to FORTRAN code and the use of post-processed CONUS AFWA MM5 model output to estimate wind gusts by the WGE method. The WGE and AFWA methods are then categorically compared for accuracy and skill in forecasting wind gusts to determine if the WGE method is superior to the current method. Three geographical regions are identified to determine gust sensitivities of the WGE and AFWA algorithms.</p><p>This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore you will see the original copyright references library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world) and other notations in the work.</p><p>This work is in the public domain in the United States of America and possibly other nations. Within the United States you may freely copy and distribute this work as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.</p><p>As a reproduction of a historical artifact this work may contain missing or blurred pages poor pictures errant marks etc. Scholars believe and we concur that this work is important enough to be preserved reproduced and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.</p>