Asymmetric Fast Transients

<p>The need to implement a truly agile acquisition process is apparent. Current acquisition professionals are required to brief decisions through the chain of command using a lengthy process to execute a change in direction. Truly agile organizations create what John Boyd called asymmetric fast transients in order to maneuver inside the enemies' or competition's decision cycle. Our warfighting doctrine calls for trust and initiative to enable all levels of leadership to seize the initiative when opportunities present themselves. This research presents the need for development of acquisition doctrine that takes the same approach in executing acquisition programs. To this end an innovative tool DoD should consider to reduce risk and shorten acquisition cycle time is the Performance and Reliability Evaluation with Diverse Information Combination and Tracking (PREDICT) reliability methodology. How can PREDICT help the acquisition process to be more agile when numerous acquisition reform efforts of significant scope have tried and failed? The unique contribution of PREDICT is using formal elicitation of expert knowledge to calculate concept reliability prior to testing. Statistical analysis of the expert knowledge yields a calculation of reliability and uncertainty of the technology or concept. PREDICT is supporting the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) mission of maintaining and certifying the safety and reliability of nuclear weapons without system testing.</p><p>This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore you will see the original copyright references library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world) and other notations in the work.</p><p>This work is in the public domain in the United States of America and possibly other nations. Within the United States you may freely copy and distribute this work as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.</p><p>As a reproduction of a historical artifact this work may contain missing or blurred pages poor pictures errant marks etc. Scholars believe and we concur that this work is important enough to be preserved reproduced and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.</p>