Bayesian Decision Analysis

Bayesian Decision Analysis Supports Principled Decision Making In Complex Domains. This Textbook Takes The Reader From A Formal Analysis Of Simple Decision Problems To A Careful Analysis Of The Sometimes Very Complex And Data Rich Structures Confronted By Practitioners. The Book Contains Basic Material On Subjective Probability Theory And Multi-Attribute Utility Theory Event And Decision Trees Bayesian Networks Influence Diagrams And Causal Bayesian Networks. The Author Demonstrates When And How The Theory Can Be Successfully Applied To A Given Decision Problem How Data Can Be Sampled And Expert Judgements Elicited To Support This Analysis And When And How An Effective Bayesian Decision Analysis Can Be Implemented. Evolving From A Third-Year Undergraduate Course Taught By The Author Over Many Years All Of The Material In This Book Will Be Accessible To A Student Who Has Completed Introductory Courses In Probability And Mathematical Statistics.