Business Risk Analysis and Prediction

This practical book presents the Business Risk Analysis and Prediction for experienced risk managers risk analysts financial risk managers and the relating subject’s degree students. The book offers models for Risk Analysis and Prediction using simulation optimisation and Neural Networks to control risks and improve Risk Assessment & Management. The chapters demonstrate risk models for Predicting Price Evolution with Markov Chain; Financial Forecasting for Businesses; Oil Pipelines Risk Analysis; Risk Analysis of Customer Loyalty with Incentive; Risk Analysis of Launching New Product; Gold Mine Risk Analysis with Optimisation; House Prices Prediction with Linear Regression; Predicting Churn for Mobile Phone Providers. The applied Sensitivity & What-If Analysis provides for essential improvements. Bernstein stated “the risk will always be there so we must explore many interesting tools that can help us to control risks we cannot avoid taking” (Bernstein and Damodaran 1998). The methods presented are one such tool.