Counterfactual Reasoning

Counterfactual reasoning is the process of evaluating conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e. “What If” statements). These alternatives can be either past possibilities or future possibilities. Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis because they are implicit in all strategic assessments. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. The first two of these are somewhat counterintuitive and are easily ignored by analysts. But they are essential to structuring one’s counterfactual reasoning properly. First one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e. develop its “back-story”). Second one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility’s back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so an analyst must connect their conclusion to the specific type of strategic assessment the counterfactual will be used to support: decision making under risk or decision making under uncertainty.. Also included at the end of this work is a 2007 essay from Dr. Henderson titled “Counterfactual Reasoning and Structured Scenario Fusion: How to Integrate Multiple Independent Estimates into a Single Projection.” This essay offers specific principles that analysts can apply to integrate independent estimates with greater rigor and reliability.. Noel Hendrickson Ph.D is Director of the Institute for National Security Analysis.. Originally published by Proteus.