Do Running Mates Matter?

<p>The American vice presidency as the saying goes is not worth a bucket of warm spit. Yet vice presidential <i>candidates</i> many people believe can make all the difference in winning--or losing--a presidential election. Is that true though? Did Sarah Palin for example sink John McCain's campaign in 2008? Did Joe Biden help Barack Obama win? Do running mates actually matter? In the first book to put this question to a rigorous test Christopher J. Devine and Kyle C. Kopko draw upon an unprecedented range of empirical data to reveal how and how much running mates influence voting in presidential elections.</p><p>Building on their previous work in <i>The VP Advantage</i> and evidence from over 200 statistical models spanning the 1952 to 2016 presidential elections the authors analyze three pathways by which running mates might influence vote choice. First of course they test for direct effects or whether evaluations of the running mate influence vote choice among voters in general. Next they test for targeted effects--if that is running mates win votes among key subsets of voters who share their gender religion ideology or geographic identity. Finally the authors examine indirect effects--that is whether running mates shape perceptions of the presidential candidate who selected them which in turn influence vote choice. Here in this last category is where we see running mates most clearly influencing presidential voting--especially when it comes to their qualifications for holding office and taking over as president if necessary. Picking a running mate from a key voting bloc probably won't make a difference the authors conclude. But picking an experienced well-qualified running mate will make the presidential candidate look better to voters--and win some votes.</p><p>With its wealth of data and expert analysis this finely crafted study the most comprehensive to date finally provides clear answers to one of the most enduring questions in presidential politics: can the running mate make a difference in this election?</p>