Failure Forecast of B737 Bleed Air System Using ANN

In this study the failure rate of different types of bleed air control valves for the Boeing 737 aircraft is modeled. Two approaches are utilized to perform this work. In the first approach Weibull model in which different parameters are utilized and tested is used. In the second one a common type of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modeling is used. A Feed-forward back-propagation algorithm is implemented to train the network. Subsequently the optimum number of neurons and layers that give the best result compared to the actual data are determined. Finally the outputs from both models are compared against the actual data. The final results show a high level of accuracy of the ANN''s predictions compared to the more traditional Weibull modeling. The developed verified model lends itself to applications that extend from scheduling replacements operations of these valves to developing plans for inventory management in any aviation engines maintenance facility.