Feasibility Study of Variance Reductionin the THUNDER Campaign-Level Model

<p>As an Air Force Chief of Staff endorsed topic Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency (AFSAA) requested an effective and efficient way to reduce the variance in analysis results from THUNDER. THUNDER is a large-scale discrete event simulation of campaign-level military operations and is used to examine issues involving the utility and effectiveness of air and space power in a theater-level joint warfare context. Given the large number of stochastic components within THUNDER results are produced with highly variable measures of effectiveness (MOEs) causing difficulties in evaluating alternative force structures weapon systems etc. This work responds to AFSAA's request by examining the application of Common Random Numbers (CRN) Antithetic Variates (AV) Control Variates (CV) and a combination of AVs and CVs and a combination of CRNs and CVs.</p><p>This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore you will see the original copyright references library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world) and other notations in the work.</p><p>This work is in the public domain in the United States of America and possibly other nations. Within the United States you may freely copy and distribute this work as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.</p><p>As a reproduction of a historical artifact this work may contain missing or blurred pages poor pictures errant marks etc. Scholars believe and we concur that this work is important enough to be preserved reproduced and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.</p>