Forecasting Fuel Consumption Requirements for the Air Force Flying Hour Program Using Pooled Time Series Analysis

<p>The United States Coast Guard uses pooled time series analysis to develop a ship and aviation fuel requirement forecasting model. Given the volatility of aviation fuel prices and the USAF dependency on foreign oil alternative fuel sources are a serious consideration and require forecasting models when conducting comparison studies. This research uses the Coast Guard's methodology to develop an Air Force aviation fuel requirements model for the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA). By pooling 1442 historical consumption time series data points two regression models are developed that predict aviation fuel requirements in gallons. The remaining 356 randomly excluded data points are then used to validate the two regression models. The research shows that 100 percent of the least squares estimated gallons consumed fell within a 95 percent confidence interval for the single and the sub macro-level models. However the single and sub macro-level models are fundamentally flawed as both fail the underlying linear regression assumptions of normality constant variance and independence. Although the research produces two models that predict aviation fuel requirements well the application of either the single or sub macro-level models are discourage without proper understanding of the underlying statistics provided.</p><p>This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore you will see the original copyright references library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world) and other notations in the work.</p><p>This work is in the public domain in the United States of America and possibly other nations. Within the United States you may freely copy and distribute this work as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.</p><p>As a reproduction of a historical artifact this work may contain missing or blurred pages poor pictures errant marks etc. Scholars believe and we concur that this work is important enough to be preserved reproduced and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.</p>