Growth and stability in the DRC

This article analyzes the evolution of the DRC's macroeconomic framework over the period 1990-2023 focusing on the prospects for self-sustained growth. The ARDL model was used due to the presence of integrated variables of order I(0) and I(1). The results of the cointegration test (Bound Test) showed an F-statistic of 6.48 well above the critical thresholds confirming the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables studied. However in the long term none of the individual coefficients was statistically significant. This suggests a low structural sensitivity of GDP to conventional macroeconomic steering variables. In contrast in the short term the ECM model shows strong growth inertia and a significant albeit slow adjustment (ECM = -0.002015). These results call for ambitious reforms. The recommendations focus on macroeconomic stabilization human capital development economic diversification and the qualitative management of FDI. To achieve self-sustaining growth the DRC will have to rely on coordinated inclusive and transformative policies.