Human Judgment and Social Policy

From the O.J. Simpson verdict to peace-making in theBalkans the critical role of human judgement--complete withits failures flaws and successes--has never been morehotly debated and analyzed than it is today. This landmarkwork examines the dynamics of judgement and its impact onevents that take place in human society which require thedirection and control of social policy. Research on socialpolicy typically focuses on content. This book concentratesinstead on the decision-making process itself. Drawing on 50years of empirical research in decision theory Hammondexamines the possibilities for wisdom and cognitivecompetence in the formation of social policies and appliesthese lessons to specific examples such as the spaceshuttle Challenger disaster and the health care debate.Uncertainly he tells us can seldom be fully eliminated;thus error is inevitable and injustice for someunavoidable. But the capacity for make wise judgmentsincreases to the extent that we understand the potential pitfalls and their origin. The judgment process for exampleinvolves an ongoing rivalry between intuition and analysisaccuracy and rationality. The source of this tensionrequires an examination of the evolutionary roots of humanjudgement and how these fundamental features may be changingas our civilization increasingly becomes an information andknowledge-based society. With numerous examples from lawmedicine engineering and economics the author dramatizesthe importance of judgment and its role in the formation ofsocial policies which affect us all and issues the firstcomprehensive examination of its underlying dynamics.