Modeling Agricultural Production Time Series Data

Agriculture in India has an extensive background which goes back to thousands of years. At present India holds the second position in the world in agricultural production. It also contributes a major share in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country. In addition the sector recruits about 50% of the entire manpower.Regardless of the fact that there has been a gradual slump in its contribution to GDP of the country agriculture is currently the biggest industry in India. On the whole it plays a key role in the socioeconomic growth of the country.The information on various agricultural production statistics are the backbone of agricultural statistical system. Regional data analyses are very vital since it forms the basis for economic and policy planning by the state and central governments. Hence if a trend of the variability can be established by appropriate statistical methods it will have practical utility. If any agricultural production is showing decreasing or increasing trends in its production behavior appropriate policy measures can be initiated if the agricultural crop production analyzed well in advance.