Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence

<p>This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several differently configured scenarios drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning ���(un)certainty��� to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today���s rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies e.g. those underlying OpenAI���s ChatGPT and Google���s Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods tools and techniques e.g. ���Red Teaming���. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of firstly ���Intelligence Engineering��� (IE) and secondly ���Strategic Options Analysis��� (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.</p><p>The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors spanning government the military law enforcement education industry commerce retail and enterprises of all sizes. Also students at business schools and high-level decision-makers including politicians military commanders and C-Suite leaders in various fields will benefit from it.</p>