Pakistan's Nuclear Future Worries Beyond War

Raise the issue of Pakistans nuclear program before almost any group of Western security analysts and they are likely to throw up their hands. What might happen if the current Pakistani government is taken over by radicalized political forces sympathetic to the Taliban? Such a government they fear might share Pakistans nuclear weapons materials and know-how with others including terrorist organizations. Then there is the possibility that a more radical government might pick a war again with India. Could Pakistan prevail against Indias superior conventional forces without threatening to resort to nuclear arms? If not what if anything might persuade Pakistan to stand its nuclear forces down? There are no good answers to these questions and even fewer near or mid-term fixes against such contingencies. This in turn encourages a kind of policy fatalism with regard to Pakistan. This book which reflects research that the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center commissioned over the last 2 years takes a different tack. Instead of asking questions that have few or no good answers this volume tries to characterize specific nuclear problems that the ruling Pakistani government faces with the aim of establishing a base line set of challenges for remedial action. Its point of departure is to consider what nuclear challenges Pakistan will face if moderate forces remain in control of the government and no hot war breaks out against India. A second volume of commissioned research planned for publication in 2008 will consider how best to address these challenges.