Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Introduction into Northern Zambia

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) was recently reported in Zambia’s neighbouring countries of Tanzania Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Angola. This situation presents a threat of illegal and legal trade-related incursions of the disease into Zambia. To determine the likelihood of this event qualitative and quantitative risk assessments were performed using the OIE risk analysis framework evaluating the risk of introducing PPRV into northern Zambia from Tanzania via live goat trade. The assessment was based on data collected during a four week mission to Tanzania and three districts in northern Zambia. Information was also obtained from published and grey literature and online searches. Using a binary outcome Markov Chain model the risk of PPRV introduction into northern Zambia was qualitatively evaluated as a function of the product of the probability of hazard (PPRV) release exposure of susceptible hosts and the consequences of spread beyond the index case.