Predicting Future Capabilities of the People's Liberation Army Air Forces of China

<p>From 1990 to 2010 China's military experienced a massive modernization effort. U.S. efforts to determine the scale and scope of this effort were incorrect. In the case of the People's Liberation Army Air Forces (PLAAF) advanced technology and a menacing stance toward Taiwan infer an offensive-minded China. This expansionist characteristic contradicts the PRC's stated grand strategy and understates China's willingness to participate in the international system. Given these contradictory strategic contexts military analysts choose to base PLAAF growth purely on weaponry potential. These predictions disregard the effects of strategic context and therefore err in very large ways. This monograph discusses the failure of the U.S. military to predict the evolutionary path of the PLAAF. These failures attribute unlimited capacity to PLAAF assets and apply the wrong strategic model to China's military industrial complex. Using two predictive case studies the author compares the predicted analysis against historical acquisition data to determine the validity of each model. The RAND study presents the 1992 PLAAF as desiring modernization efforts that support an offensive realist model. These efforts attempted to bring the PLAAF into parity with the airpower witnessed in Operation Desert Storm. This offensive realist theme showed a preference for quantitative gains. The Holmes study however shows a defensive realist interpretation where China balances internal and external sources of conflict. The defensive realist theme showed a preference for qualitative gains. Predictive estimates about the PLAAF and PLA remain devoid of strategic intention. By not applying China's demonstrated strategic agenda military analysts'; predictions provide unreliable guidance. Despite offensive realist projections the PLAAF and PLAN inventories continue to decrease as the PLA opts for qualitative improvements over quantitative ones. The broader implications of performing single-service m</p><p>This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore you will see the original copyright references library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world) and other notations in the work.</p><p>This work is in the public domain in the United States of America and possibly other nations. Within the United States you may freely copy and distribute this work as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.</p><p>As a reproduction of a historical artifact this work may contain missing or blurred pages poor pictures errant marks etc. Scholars believe and we concur that this work is important enough to be preserved reproduced and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.</p>