Predicting Over Target Baseline Acquisition Contracts

<p>Cost estimators use a variety of methods to develop estimates at completion (EACs) and new methods continue to be developed. Research has shown there is no best method for computing EACs for all acquisition contracts. However some methods perform better under specific circumstances. In 2009 Captain Trahan investigated the use of a Gompertz growth model for developing EACs. She found that this method is more reliable for Over Target Baseline (OTB) contracts than the standard indexed based approaches. Captain Trahan's model is an excellent model to use for OTB contracts or contracts with a high likelihood of becoming an OTB contract. In this study we attempt to develop a model that predicts whether an acquisition contract is likely to become an OTB. By identifying contracts that are likely to become OTB we can apply the Gompertz growth model to develop better EACs. Furthermore an OTB by definition recognizes a cost overrun.</p><p>This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore you will see the original copyright references library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world) and other notations in the work.</p><p>This work is in the public domain in the United States of America and possibly other nations. Within the United States you may freely copy and distribute this work as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.</p><p>As a reproduction of a historical artifact this work may contain missing or blurred pages poor pictures errant marks etc. Scholars believe and we concur that this work is important enough to be preserved reproduced and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.</p>