Predicting trends in future foreign exchange market prices

This book examines whether the use of charts and technical analysis is effective to determine trends in future foreign exchange market prices. In the first part of analysis the U.S. / U.K. Foreign Exchange Daily Spot Rates were processed using STATA. Then the moving average trading rule was applied for the three sub-periods from 1980 to 2015. It was concluded that in periods with more extreme values and fluctuations (higher kurtosis) longer moving average rule is the best option while conversely in periods with lower kurtosis the shorter moving average rule should be considered. Moreover in the absence of transaction costs or risk adjustments the cumulative average return of the strategies among all of the trading rules was considerably positive for the period 1980-1990. While the moving average technique remained positive it was closer to zero for the other two sample periods from 1990 to 2000 and for the more recent one 2005-2015. In addition head and shoulders chart pattern was analysed in this book and came up to be ineffective for trading in foreign exchange market.