Real Options in Projects and Systems Design Identification of Options and Solution for Path Dependency

This book describes a comprehensive approach to identify and deal with real options in projects that is those real options (flexibility) that are integral parts of the technical design. It attempts to specify analytically the design parameters that provide good opportunities for flexibility for any specific engineering system. It proposes a two-stage integrated process: options identification followed by options analysis. The options identification stage discovers the design elements most likely to provide worthwhile flexibility including a screening and a simulation model. Options analysis stage develops a stochastic mixed-integer programming model to value options. This approach decreases the complexity and size of the models at each stage and thus permits efficient computation. The framework developed is generally applicable to engineering systems. The book explores two cases in river basin development and satellite communications showing significant value of real options in projects in the form of increased expected net benefit and/or lowered downside risk.