Techniques for Forecasting the Cessation of Lightning at Cape Canaveral Air Station and the Kennedy Space Center

<p>The focus of this research effort is directed toward identifying new methods of forecasting the cessation of lightning along the Central Atlantic Coast of Florida. Cloud-to-ground lightning flashes place Air Force (AF) personnel and assets at risk almost daily at this location. Providing a more accurate method of forecasting the cessation of lightning would allow for safer and more efficient execution of AF operations. A data set consisting of 40 thunderstorm cases was identified within a 90 nautical miles (nmi) region surrounding the Melbourne Florida WSR-88D (KMLB) site. Each case falls between the months of May and September and the years of 1995 through 1997. Simple and multiple linear regression models are built using this dataset. Variables included max Vertically Integrated Liquid water (VIL) max reflectivity max peak current peak cumulative flash rate peak negative flash rate and peak positive flash rate. Results indicate that three of the simple linear regression models to some extent accurately represent the data. Additionally when the data set is separated by thunderstorm cell type (multi or single) and cell specific regressions are built results indicate that the regressions based on the single-cell data set produce a substantial increase in forecast skill compared to that of climatology. In fact some regressions are shown to improve forecast accuracy by 90 % over that of climatology. Moreover multiple linear regression models are shown to produce similar results and further reinforce the notion that each thunderstorm cell type (multi or single) behaves substantially different from the other with respect to forecasting the cessation of lightning.</p><p>This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore you will see the original copyright references library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world) and other notations in the work.</p><p>This work is in the public domain in the United States of America and possibly other nations. Within the United States you may freely copy and distribute this work as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.</p><p>As a reproduction of a historical artifact this work may contain missing or blurred pages poor pictures errant marks etc. Scholars believe and we concur that this work is important enough to be preserved reproduced and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.</p>