The Development of Organised Crime in El Salvador

The possible evolution of organised crime in El Salvador for the period 2014 - 2019 is studied using the prospective analysis of scenarios for which a concept of scenario is initially detailed explaining what scenario building consists of how it is carried out and its usefulness. Subsequently several methods of scenario building are described and the most appropriate one for application to the issue of organised crime is defined. The emancipatory method was chosen as the one with the best technical basis and the greatest social and decision-making utility. Using this method the factors that make up the conditions that influence the variables that can lead to possible scenarios are identified applying the verification of hypotheses through interviews statistics literature review and field visits to configure the evolution of organised crime in three different situations of the variables: first if the variables do not change; second if the variables worsen; and third if the variables are acted upon so that they improve.