The efficiency of early warning indicators for financial crises

Inhaltsangabe:Abstract:The banking and currency crises of the last two decades inflicted substantial financial economic and social damage on the countries in which they originated. In this work the efficiency of early warning indicators for these disastrous economic events is evaluated. An analysis of the traditional and recent literature on currency crises is performed in order to extract potential early warning indicators that are suggested by theory. Alongside others these candidate indicators are tested in alternative empirical studies that are reviewed in this work. The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging for further research in this field. Furthermore the analysis is extended to a critique of systems of early warning indicators currently used by international institutions.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents:1.Introduction12.The Currency Crisis Literature as a Reference Point for the Identification of Early Warning Indicators42.1The Traditional Theory52.2Second Generation Models112.3A Cross-generation Framework Proposition192.4Early Warning Indicators as Suggested by Theory223.The Empirical Assessment of Early Warning Indicators243.1Univariate Indicators for Financial Crises243.1.1Cross-Country Regressions263.1.2Multivariate Probit Models353.1.3The Signals Approach403.2Composite Leading Indicators for Financial Crises484.A Critique of Early Warning Indicators Used in Practice535.Conclusion64Appendix68Bibliography69