The Logic of Exchange Rates/汇率的逻辑

<p>Guan Tao Global Chief Economist and FX Expert at BOC International Delivers Authoritative Analysis on the Future Outlook of Exchange Rates</p><p>中银证券全球首席经济学家、汇率专家管涛权威阐述未来汇率大趋势</p><p></p><p>Exchange rate is an important factor affecting international trade and plays a crucial role in the economic development of a country. Therefore the analysis of exchange rate trends has always been a hot topic of market attention.</p><p>This book includes the author's observations and reflections on the exchange rate market since the second half of 2020. Chapters two and three respectively discuss exchange rate policies for 2020 and 2021. Chapter three discusses the relationship between the foreign exchange market and the stock market. Chapter four discusses the hot foreign exchange issues triggered by the appreciation of the renminbi. Chapter five discusses macroeconomic and cross cyclical adjustments. Chapter six provides an outlook on the renminbi exchange rate in 2022. Chapter seven discusses China's expansion of financial openness. In the analysis process the author discussed some important issues of market concern such as questioning the new exchange rate cycle theory the rapid rise of the RMB exchange rate the atypical safe haven currency characteristics of the RMB and the internationalization of the RMB which have guiding and inspiring significance for scientific analysis of exchange rate trends.</p><p>汇率是影响国际贸易的重要因素，在国家经济发展中扮演重要的角色。因此，对汇率走势的研判分析始终是市场关注的热点。</p><p></p><p>本书收录了作者2020年下半年以来对汇率市场的观察和思考。章、第二章分别是关于2020年和2021年汇率政策的讨论，第三章是关于汇市与股市关系的讨论，第四章是对这波人民币升值过程中引发的外汇热点问题的讨论，第五章是关于宏观调控跨周期调节的思考，第六章是对2022年人民币汇率的展望，第七章是关于中国扩大金融开放的讨论。在分析过程中，作者谈及了一些市场关切的重要问题，如对汇率新周期说的质疑、人民币汇率的急涨行情、人民币非典型的避险货币特征、人民币国际化等，对科学研判汇率走势具有指导和启发意义。</p>