The Turnout Myth

When voter turnout is high Democrats have an advantage--or so the truism goes. But it is true? In The Turnout Myth Daron Shaw and John Petrocik refute the widely held convention that high voter participation benefits Democrats while low involvement helps Republicans. The authors examine over 50 years of presidential gubernatorial Senatorial and House election data to show that there is no consistent partisan effect associated with voter turnout in national elections. Instead less-engaged citizens'' responses to short-term forces-candidate appeal issues scandals and the like-determine election turnout. Moreover Republican and Democratic candidates are equally affected by short-term forces. The consistency of these effects suggests that partisan conflict over eligibility registration and voting rules and regulations is less important for election outcomes than both sides seem to believe. Featuring powerful evidence and analytical acumen this book provides a new foundation for thinking about U.S. elections.