Verification and Comparison of Polar MM5 and AFWA MM5 Forecasts Over Alaska

<p>The Mesoscale Model 5th Generation (MM5) is used for operational support to Air Force missions in the Alaskan Theater. The 11th Operational Weather squadron has identified problems with the MM5 producing excessively warm surface temperature forecasts. The Polar MM5 (PMM5) developed by the Byrd Polar Research Center for the high latitude ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland is tested over the Alaskan domains used by the Air Force Weather Agency to determine the utility in replacing the MM5 with the PMM5. The verification of surface temperature pressure and wind as well as upper-air temperature geopotential height and relative humidity of 27-hour PMM5 forecasts are compared to the MM5 forecasts to assess the differences between the models' accuracies. A grid-to-station inverse-weighted linear interpolation technique is used to compare model output to surface observation for 71 locations and to radiosonde upper-air observations for 7 locations. The results are based on 67 forecasts made over a 4-month period during the Fall-Winter of 2001.</p><p>This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore you will see the original copyright references library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world) and other notations in the work.</p><p>This work is in the public domain in the United States of America and possibly other nations. Within the United States you may freely copy and distribute this work as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.</p><p>As a reproduction of a historical artifact this work may contain missing or blurred pages poor pictures errant marks etc. Scholars believe and we concur that this work is important enough to be preserved reproduced and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.</p>