When Will We Listen?

<p>The purpose of this paper is to determine if there were indicators of the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq on 2 August 1990 that were not accurately assessed by allied decision makers in time to make a difference. Moreover based on historical precedence these indicators were hypothesized to be available from open (not classified) sources. Using only a small sampling of the public speeches of Saddam Hussein and the pronouncements in the Iraqi press as reported by the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS) this research indicates the 2 August invasion should have been assessed as a near-certainty as early as 17 July. Furthermore research of the memoirs of some the key participants as well as books chronicling the actions of decision makers during the weeks prior to the invasion indicate that although the information identified during the research was available it was dismissed as rhetoric rather than being recognized as indications of intent. Moreover the research points to a continuing tendency by both analysts and decision makers to discount open-source pronouncements even when they are congruent with empirical evidence from classified sources because the decision makers and analysts believe the impending action would be unthinkable.</p><p>This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore you will see the original copyright references library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world) and other notations in the work.</p><p>This work is in the public domain in the United States of America and possibly other nations. Within the United States you may freely copy and distribute this work as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.</p><p>As a reproduction of a historical artifact this work may contain missing or blurred pages poor pictures errant marks etc. Scholars believe and we concur that this work is important enough to be preserved reproduced and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.</p><br>